Anastasia
Prisella
3B D-4
461 100 047
Financial
Statement Analysis
(Logit
Analysis)
A. Financial
Statement
Financial
statement is the documents that provide information about the financial
situation of a company that describes the investment activities, financing, and
operations company.
That
exist in financial statement are:
·
Balance Sheet is summarizes the assets, liabilities, and owners’ equity
of a company at the end of a year;
·
Income Statement is summarizes the revenues and expenses of the firm
at the end of a year;
·
Statement Of Changes In Equity to show the changes accounts of equity
·
Statement Of Cash Flow to show
cash inflow and cash outflow that separate based on operating , investing, and financing;
·
Notes to financial
statement(CALK)to explanation of
information that include the part which is important from financial statement
.
B. Financial
Statement Analysis
Financial
Statement Analysis is the process of reviewing and evaluating a company's
financial statements (such as the balance sheet or profit and loss statement),
thereby gaining an understanding of the financial health of the company and
enabling more effective decision making.
Technique
for financial statement analysis are:
·
Horizontal analysis
·
Cross-section analysis
·
Common-size analysis/vertical analysis
·
Financial analysis
ratio
·
Discuss and management
analysis
Scope
of financial statement analysis
·
Liquidity Analysis;
·
Solvency Analysis;
·
Profitability Analysis;
·
Cash Flow Analysis;
·
Banckruptcy Prediction Analysis;
·
Risk Analysis;
·
Investment Analysis.
C. Bankcruptcy
Prediction Analysis
This
analysis have two model to analize and there are:
a. Univariate
Model
b. Multivariate
Model (such as Z-score and Logit Analysis)
Logit analysis
Logit
analysis model developed by James A. Ohlson of research results using the 9
best ratio.And James ohlson used to regretion liner double approach :
And 9 ratio to supported his formula
Y are;
1. Natural
log of total assets to GNP implicit price deflator indeks = SIZE (X1)
2. Total
Liabilities to Total Assets = TLTA(X2)
3. Current
Assets-Current Liabilities to Total Assets
= WCTA(X3)
4. Current
Liabilities to Current Assets = CLCA(X4)
5. Net
Income to Total Assets = NITA(X5)
6. Funds
from Operations to Total Liabilities = FUTL(X6)
7. Dummy
variable, get value is
one if net income was negative for the last
two years and zero otherwise = INTWO(X7)
8. Dummy variable,get
value is one if total liabilities exceed
total asset and zero otherwise = OENEG(X8)
9. Net
profit t-net profit t-1)/(|net profit t| + |net profit t-1|) = CHIN(X9)
James a Ohlson develope the logit analysis model that found 9
variabel like this :
Y = - 1,32 –
0,407(SIZE) + 6,03(TLTA)- 1,43 (WCTA) + 0,0757(CLCA) – 2,37(NITA) – 1,83(FUTL)
+0,285(INTWO) – 1,72(OENEG)-0,521(CHIN)
After get the Y value,
we put into the Probability of Bankcruptcy formula and there formula is:
Probability 0f bankruptcy(P) = 1
1+e-y
e
= (2,718282)
the logaritma number
Y=
multivariate
function that include constanta and coefisien from collection of explanatory
variable.
And for the evaluation
of criteria the company will bankcrupt with Cut off point = 3,8%,
·
If (P) bigger than 3,8% it means the company have a probability
of bankcruptcy
·
If (P) less or equal than 3,8% it means the probability of
bankcruptcy is small.
D. Conclusion
To know how actually
the probability of bankcruptcy from a company, so we can use the analysis logit
model where the formula probability of bankcruptcy (P) of the company bigger than 3,8% it means if the company
have a probability of bankcruptcy. And if (P) less than or equal than 3,8% it means the probability
of bankcruptcy is small.
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar